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Re: [tor-bugs] #18167 [Metrics]: Don't trust "bridge-ips" blindly for user number estimates



#18167: Don't trust "bridge-ips" blindly for user number estimates
---------------------+---------------------
 Reporter:  karsten  |          Owner:
     Type:  defect   |         Status:  new
 Priority:  Medium   |      Milestone:
Component:  Metrics  |        Version:
 Severity:  Major    |     Resolution:
 Keywords:           |  Actual Points:
Parent ID:           |         Points:
  Sponsor:           |
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Comment (by karsten):

 Replying to [comment:4 dcf]:
 > Replying to [comment:3 karsten]:
 > > Right, I agree that we shouldn't do (1) but only (2) and (3).  The
 following graph shows how this change would affect bridge users from China
 and the U.S. and bridge users using meek.  Does this graph look plausible
 to you?
 >
 > Yes, it looks plausible to me.

 Great, thanks for looking!

 I'm trying to make another change or two to user number estimates (#8786,
 #18203) before re-running the estimation algorithm on years of data.  That
 means it could take a few more weeks until the numbers on Metrics are
 updated.

 > Noticed how it smoothed out some of the wild fluctuations in cn in Dec
 2015. I wonder if this is because when counting `"bridge-ips"`, the cn
 count would semi-randomly switch between 0/''n'' and 1/''n'' of meek
 users.

 I think so, yes.  See the following graph with fractions of `"bridge-ips"`
 being resolved to cn:

 [[Image(meek-bridges-2016-02-02.pngâ)]]

 I think that explains the fluctuations.

--
Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/18167#comment:5>
Tor Bug Tracker & Wiki <https://trac.torproject.org/>
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