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Re: [tor-talk] End-to-end correlation for fun and profit



Thus spake Ted Smith (tedks@xxxxxxxxxx):

> On Mon, 2012-08-20 at 10:33 +0300, Maxim Kammerer wrote:
> > Hello gentlemen,
> <snip>
> > [1] http://pastebin.com/hgtXMSyx
> 
> I ran this script on the current consensus. The full results (the
> nodes-sniff-summary file) are below my signature. How did you compile
> the country-codes to IPs list? That wasn't produced by the script.
> 
> It's comforting that this approach yields quickly diminishing returns.
> Going from 25 to 60 networks only gets you a 10% increase in networks
> surveillance (if I'm reading the output correctly), and returns plateau
> entirely at that point (I'm considering about two percent to be in the
> noise, which may not be appropriate to this domain).
> 
> Also, it's not immediately clear whether eavesdropping those networks
> would actually get you strong enough correlation to accurately
> de-anonymize users[1]. If our rodent(?) friend(s?) could comment on
> this, I'd appreciate their expertise.

The Raccoon has made a believer out of me, but there are some limits to
both of his/her proofs.. The full proofs can still be found here:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100416150300/http://archives.seul.org/or/dev/Sep-2008/msg00016.html
https://lists.torproject.org/pipermail/tor-dev/2012-March/003347.html

The actual numbers from the examples of the first proof are affected by
the resolution of the data retention. The core concept of the proof
seems to hold no matter what (that full dragnet n^2 correlation is hard,
and the amount of similar co-incident traffic - aka the base rate - is
what makes it hard), but if the adversary has full observation of *all*
traffic data, they *might* be able to do better than 99.9% true positive
rate. It's not clear that low-resolution connection-level data retention
or even sampled netflow data can provide anywhere near that true
positive rate, though.

A full adversary may also get to combine repeat observations (assuming
it is possible to identify them as from the same user), but the post
mentions that.

Incidentally, my guess is that's probably one of the reasons for the
huge boondoggle^W datacenter in Utah. They probably realized that to
reliably track large botnet activity, they really needed to log all data
forever. Well, keep sitting on the unpublished 0day software
vulnerabilities, guys. That should totally help you solve both those
problems, once and for all. Oh wait. ;)

Anyways, the key thing I think the first proof tells us is that even
sloppy defenses against correlation attacks are likely to work against
dragnet surveillance/data retention, especially if you have a lot of
co-incident traffic to blend in with and if the data retention
resolution is low.

I think this alone can justify experimentation with traffic padding
to/from Guard nodes, where bandwidth is relatively cheap and plentiful.
It especially justifies minimal amounts of Guard node padding to defend
against the single-ended version of the end-to-end correlation attack,
which is also known as the "website traffic fingerprinting attack". The
single ended version is even *more* vulnerable to the properties of
background traffic than the double-ended version, and has far fewer
reliably recognizable traffic features to extract from data streams as
well. See this blog post and its links for more details:
https://blog.torproject.org/blog/experimental-defense-website-traffic-fingerprinting 

It's my personal opinion that we should also experiment with Guard
padding against the website traffic fingerprinting attack, and see
how far that gets us against e2e correlation while we're at it.

Unfortunately, current academic religious dogma tends to hold that
correlation is unbeatable no matter what. This publication and research
bias already has hindered and will likely continue to hinder research
into viable defenses :(.


The second proof wrt tagging attacks scared the crap out of me. However,
the "c/n" compromise result at the end hinges crucially on nodes that
fail circuits being able to attract additional traffic to make up for
it. The bandwidth authorities might do this to a certain extent
currently, and will certainly do it if operated in "PID feedback mode".
However it's still not clear that the 3 guard node round-robin circuit
selection properties of Tor wouldn't end up also hampering the attack
against specific clients (unless the Guard nodes' keys were stolen and
the attack is locally targeted).

Either way, it's caused me to drive Nick nuts by pushing hard to include
at least *some* kind of simple defense for circuit failure attacks on
the client-side. How much of that actually survives in 0.2.3.x in a
functional form remains to be seen :/.



P.S. Incidentally, you used to be able to get the full copy of the first
proof in the old seul archives at
http://archives.seul.org/or/dev/Sep-2008/msg00016.html, but since seul
is currently down with unknown hardware and disk issues,
http://web.archive.org/web/20100416150300/http://archives.seul.org/or/dev/Sep-2008/msg00016.html
might be the last full public copy other than your repost. I've added
the Raccoon on Cc so s/he can hopefully do a full repost if the seul
archives end up being destroyed forever.


-- 
Mike Perry

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