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Re: [tor-talk] Tech Report on Tor Growth [pdf]

On 10/04/2014 05:57 PM, Virgil Griffith wrote:
> I hereby submit the following PDF as a Tor Tech Report.
> http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3308162/tor%20growth.pdf
> I'll be providing the various raw data files to github/torproject shortly.
> Qualitative conclusions are the same.  The methodology is more
> rigorous than it was before, some quantitative differences.  Most
> notably:
> * Lots of stuff in Tor increases exponentially.
> * Absolute Torperf is increasingly nicely.
> * Normalized Torperf (Torperf relative to non-tor speeds) increases glacially.
> * There's statistical evidence that an injection of advertised
> bandwidth would reliably improve Torperf performance.
> For non-policy makers, I think the main contribution I am offering is
> a list of the various Tor growth rates (page 4, table 2)

I've noticed something relevant to current discussion about Tor use.

| Figure 8: Network Utilization Ratio (NUR) falls into three distinct
| stages. Within each stage the fitted line is essentially flat. What
| happened on 2013-10-08 and 2014-06-06!? The only thing we see is
| that on 2014-06-05 (one day prior) the EFF began their Tor Challenge.

Silk Road was taken down by the FBI on 2014-10-02.[0] The site still
loaded, however, showing a "This Hidden Site Has Been Seized" message.
And so it probably took a few days for most users to get the news.

Also, contemplating Figure 8, there may be a discontinuity at about July
2013, when they took down Freedom Hosting.[1]

I'm not aware of anything major in May-June of this year.

[0] https://lists.torproject.org/pipermail/tor-talk/2013-October/030268.html
[1] http://www.wired.com/2013/09/freedom-hosting-fbi/
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