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Re: [tor-bugs] #24607 [Circumvention/BridgeDB]: CAPTCHAs on BridgeDB seem to be getting more difficult

#24607: CAPTCHAs on BridgeDB seem to be getting more difficult
-------------------------------------------------+-------------------------
 Reporter:  alison                               |          Owner:  phw
     Type:  defect                               |         Status:
                                                 |  assigned
 Priority:  Medium                               |      Milestone:
Component:  Circumvention/BridgeDB               |        Version:
 Severity:  Normal                               |     Resolution:
 Keywords:  anti-censorship-roadmap-2020Q1 ,     |  Actual Points:
  s30-o22a2                                      |
Parent ID:  #31279                               |         Points:  5
 Reviewer:                                       |        Sponsor:
                                                 |  Sponsor30-must
-------------------------------------------------+-------------------------

Comment (by phw):

 Here are the February 2020 numbers for moat (`moat.obfs4.??`):

 ||= Date =||= # success =||= # failed =||= # total =||= Success rate =||
 || 2020-02-01 || 3870|| 530|| 4400|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-02 || 3560|| 520|| 4080|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-03 || 3820|| 540|| 4360|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-05 || 4050|| 560|| 4610|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-06 || 3700|| 580|| 4280|| 86.00%||
 || 2020-02-07 || 3810|| 560|| 4370|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-08 || 3980|| 560|| 4540|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-09 || 4330|| 590|| 4920|| 88.00%||
 || 2020-02-10 || 4130|| 540|| 4670|| 88.00%||
 || 2020-02-11 || 4640|| 580|| 5220|| 88.00%||
 || 2020-02-15 || 3640|| 520|| 4160|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-16 || 4040|| 600|| 4640|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-17 || 4020|| 560|| 4580|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-18 || 4500|| 570|| 5070|| 88.00%||
 || 2020-02-20 || 4560|| 580|| 5140|| 88.00%||
 || 2020-02-21 || 4070|| 550|| 4620|| 88.00%||
 || 2020-02-22 || 3680|| 520|| 4200|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-23 || 3700|| 520|| 4220|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-24 || 3940|| 580|| 4520|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-25 || 4300|| 610|| 4910|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-26 || 4610|| 610|| 5220|| 88.00%||
 || 2020-02-27 || 4240|| 630|| 4870|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-28 || 5040|| 690|| 5730|| 87.00%||
 || 2020-02-29 || 4100|| 570|| 4670|| 87.00%||

 And for HTTPS requests from the U.S. for vanilla bridges
 (`https.vanilla.us`):

 ||= Date =||= # success =||= # failed =||= # total =||= Success rate =||
 || 2020-02-01 || 200|| 70|| 270|| 74.00%||
 || 2020-02-02 || 200|| 60|| 260|| 76.00%||
 || 2020-02-03 || 200|| 60|| 260|| 76.00%||
 || 2020-02-05 || 190|| 250|| 440|| 43.00%||
 || 2020-02-06 || 200|| 40|| 240|| 83.00%||
 || 2020-02-07 || 180|| 50|| 230|| 78.00%||
 || 2020-02-08 || 170|| 30|| 200|| 85.00%||
 || 2020-02-09 || 200|| 60|| 260|| 76.00%||
 || 2020-02-10 || 200|| 40|| 240|| 83.00%||
 || 2020-02-11 || 240|| 70|| 310|| 77.00%||
 || 2020-02-15 || 200|| 40|| 240|| 83.00%||
 || 2020-02-16 || 230|| 70|| 300|| 76.00%||
 || 2020-02-17 || 270|| 190|| 460|| 58.00%||
 || 2020-02-18 || 230|| 70|| 300|| 76.00%||
 || 2020-02-20 || 220|| 50|| 270|| 81.00%||
 || 2020-02-21 || 200|| 60|| 260|| 76.00%||
 || 2020-02-22 || 270|| 60|| 330|| 81.00%||
 || 2020-02-23 || 220|| 60|| 280|| 78.00%||
 || 2020-02-24 || 200|| 70|| 270|| 74.00%||
 || 2020-02-25 || 180|| 60|| 240|| 75.00%||
 || 2020-02-26 || 220|| 90|| 310|| 70.00%||
 || 2020-02-27 || 240|| 60|| 300|| 80.00%||
 || 2020-02-28 || 220|| 50|| 270|| 81.00%||
 || 2020-02-29 || 290|| 70|| 360|| 80.00%||

 Oddly, the success rate is lower for HTTPS requests from the U.S. for
 obfs4 bridges (`https.obfs4.us`):

 ||= Date =||= # success =||= # failed =||= # total =||= Success rate =||
 || 2020-02-01 || 150|| 150|| 300|| 50.00%||
 || 2020-02-02 || 130|| 120|| 250|| 52.00%||
 || 2020-02-03 || 110|| 120|| 230|| 47.00%||
 || 2020-02-05 || 120|| 330|| 450|| 26.00%||
 || 2020-02-06 || 80|| 100|| 180|| 44.00%||
 || 2020-02-07 || 80|| 120|| 200|| 40.00%||
 || 2020-02-08 || 80|| 110|| 190|| 42.00%||
 || 2020-02-09 || 90|| 110|| 200|| 45.00%||
 || 2020-02-10 || 110|| 120|| 230|| 47.00%||
 || 2020-02-11 || 120|| 120|| 240|| 50.00%||
 || 2020-02-15 || 120|| 110|| 230|| 52.00%||
 || 2020-02-16 || 120|| 110|| 230|| 52.00%||
 || 2020-02-17 || 140|| 250|| 390|| 35.00%||
 || 2020-02-18 || 130|| 120|| 250|| 52.00%||
 || 2020-02-20 || 150|| 150|| 300|| 50.00%||
 || 2020-02-21 || 110|| 120|| 230|| 47.00%||
 || 2020-02-22 || 120|| 130|| 250|| 48.00%||
 || 2020-02-23 || 120|| 120|| 240|| 50.00%||
 || 2020-02-24 || 90|| 130|| 220|| 40.00%||
 || 2020-02-25 || 130|| 130|| 260|| 50.00%||
 || 2020-02-26 || 110|| 120|| 230|| 47.00%||
 || 2020-02-27 || 130|| 130|| 260|| 50.00%||
 || 2020-02-28 || 160|| 150|| 310|| 51.00%||
 || 2020-02-29 || 180|| 150|| 330|| 54.00%||

 And for HTTPS for requests coming over Tor (`https.vanilla.zz`):

 ||= Date =||= # success =||= # failed =||= # total =||= Success rate =||
 || 2020-02-01 || 250|| 7390|| 7640|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-02 || 260|| 7160|| 7420|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-03 || 240|| 6950|| 7190|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-05 || 190|| 5150|| 5340|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-06 || 260|| 7030|| 7290|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-07 || 230|| 6770|| 7000|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-08 || 250|| 7030|| 7280|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-09 || 250|| 7040|| 7290|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-10 || 240|| 7700|| 7940|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-11 || 250|| 7260|| 7510|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-15 || 280|| 6490|| 6770|| 4.00%||
 || 2020-02-16 || 300|| 5840|| 6140|| 4.00%||
 || 2020-02-17 || 280|| 5650|| 5930|| 4.00%||
 || 2020-02-18 || 270|| 6730|| 7000|| 3.00%||
 || 2020-02-20 || 220|| 7930|| 8150|| 2.00%||
 || 2020-02-21 || 490|| 9130|| 9620|| 5.00%||
 || 2020-02-22 || 600|| 8970|| 9570|| 6.00%||
 || 2020-02-23 || 560|| 8880|| 9440|| 5.00%||
 || 2020-02-24 || 600|| 7790|| 8390|| 7.00%||
 || 2020-02-25 || 600|| 4900|| 5500|| 10.00%||
 || 2020-02-26 || 580|| 6430|| 7010|| 8.00%||
 || 2020-02-27 || 580|| 7340|| 7920|| 7.00%||
 || 2020-02-28 || 670|| 6840|| 7510|| 8.00%||
 || 2020-02-29 || 600|| 6640|| 7240|| 8.00%||

 Here's how I got these numbers: I used the tool
 [https://gitlab.torproject.org/phw/bridgedb-metrics-visualisation
 bridgedb-metrics-parser] to parse [https://collector.torproject.org/recent
 /bridgedb-metrics/ BridgeDB's CollecTor files]. I used the following
 script to batch-process archived BridgeDB metrics:
 {{{
 #!/bin/bash

 file="$1"
 # args="-d moat -b obfs4"
 args="-d https -b vanilla -o ru"
 # args="-d https -b vanilla -o zz"

 content=$(cat "$file")
 date=$(echo "$content" | \
        bridgedb-metrics-parser -i | \
        cut -d ' ' -f 1)

 success=$(echo "$content" | \
           bridgedb-metrics-parser -s success $(echo "$args") -i | \
           cut -d ',' -f 2)
 fail=$(echo "$content" | \
        bridgedb-metrics-parser -s fail $(echo "$args") -i | \
        cut -d ',' -f 2)
 total=$(("$success" + "$fail"))
 pct=$(echo "scale=2; ${success} / ${total} * 100" | bc -l)

 echo "|| $date || $success|| $fail|| $total|| ${pct}%||"
 }}}

--
Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/24607#comment:17>
Tor Bug Tracker & Wiki <https://trac.torproject.org/>
The Tor Project: anonymity online

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