# Re: [tor-talk] NSA supercomputer

```I would love to see an analysis of a 128 bit AES encryption VS a 10 exoflop
computer. How long to crack it?  Anyone got the math on this?

Andreas, your absolutely right, However we can do some estimating.
Just keep in mind... garbage in, garbage out.. but  this is a pretty good
guess.

So the fastest super computers use general cpus and Nvidia k20s. This is
important to note because they scale in a linear fashion based on available
space.   Now we know that Oak ridge national labs has about an acre of
space, 43,560 Sq. Feet,  for its super computer, the Cray XK7 Named Titan.
Which runs at 17.59 Pentaflops.  (yes PENTAFLOPS)
http://www.top500.org/lists/2012/11/

According to a Cray press release Titan can scale up to 50 Pentaflops.

Now the new facility in Utah will have over 200,000 sq. feet dedicated to
its super computer.

(
http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/03/16/nsas-new-data-center-and-ultra-fast-supercomputer-aim-to-crack-worlds-strongest-crypto/)

So If we assume, the a linear relationship between Square footage and
computing power then we can calculate that Utah will have 4.59  time more
space then Oak Ridge, so they will have room for at least 80.73
pentaflops.

Several articles have stated that the center is designed to house an
Exoflop computer.  Thats a fast computer. Thats 10 followed by 18 zeros. Or
1000 petaflops.

There is more.  Lets look at our growth rate.   4.5 years ago Roadrunner
was the first super computer to brake the pentaflop barrier. Today we have
titan at 17.59 pentaflops. So if we can assume a growth rate of 380% per
year.  And that the center will be up graded with each new version of GPU
from Nvidia and CPUs from Intel, We can assume that we will hit one Exoflop
in about three years or 2015.

The power production at the new facility supports these numbers.

So what does this mean?   Any article that suggest that brute forcing
present day encryption is not possible should be taken with a grain of
salt.  While the article may be correct today, come September 2012, Utah
goes on line and we will be stepping into a world that will lead to exaflop
computers and may challenges to our present day encryptions.

AES is safe for a longtime, but other encryptions should be of concern in
the coming years.    Don't forget about tracking and fingerprinting
possibilities with these massive systems.

I would love to see an analysis of a 128 bit AES encryption VS a 10 exoflop
computer. How long to crack it?  Anyone got the math on this?

The good news, no one is going to care about your stuff... unless your
making waves.   Then the only safe encryption is a non mathematical method,
such as a  library code run on a system that does not go on the net.

On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 8:00 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> On Thu, Apr 04, 2013 at 01:55:40PM -0400, Gregory Disney wrote:
> > Just saying TOR was created by the Naval Research Laboratory a part of
>
> The name's Tor, not TOR.
>
> > DARPA. Since it's inception they could index, spider and track the dark
> > net.
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