Re: [tor-talk] NSA supercomputer

[mirimir <mirimir@xxxxxxxxxx>]

On 04/05/2013 06:01 PM, Andrew F wrote:
> I saw a lecture a while back, I think it was given by Whitfield Diffie of
> public/ private  key fame although it was quite a while ago... , The
> speaker said that the gov was storing encrypted messages that have been
> intercepted from critical sources in hopes that quantum computing will
> allow them to crack the encryptions eventually.
> 
> Basically he said that with quantum computing all bets are off and every
> cipher today will likely be cracked. Quantum computing will require new
> kinds of ciphers and only those with Qcomputers will be able to decrypt the
> messages.
> 
> So a new class of people / government will emerge.   One class will be able
> to decrypt or crack all messages sent with encryption.  And the other class
> of people, those without Qcomputers, will only be able to decrypt ciphers
> that they can encrypt.     One class can only view messages they create,
> the other class can see everything.

Even without Qcomputers, there are simple strategies that might prevent
decryption. Fundamentally, one would first encrypt a file. Then one
would split it into N pieces, and encrypt each piece, using a different
public key (and perhaps using a different one for each piece). Then one
would upload the pieces to various sharing sites, with each one in
multiple places, but only 20%-50% of the pieces on any one site. One
would spread the uploads and downloads over several days, or more.

The weakness, of course, is the storage plan. But that could be
negotiated in advance, privately, and not retained locally by any party
to the distribution.

How about that?

> I am guessing that the cost of Qcomputer technology will keep these
> machines out of the hands of Joe public for decades to come...?

That seems likely.

> On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 5:19 PM, Andreas Bader <noergelpizza@xxxxxxxxxx>wrote:
> 
>> Some days ago I read that the first usable Quantumcomputing System is on
>> the market. Can some estimate how this possibly influences the decryption
>> of different ciphers?
>>
>> Andreas
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Andrew F <andrewfriedman101@xxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Fri, 5 Apr 2013 13:51:06
>> To: <tor-talk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Subject: Re: [tor-talk] NSA supercomputer
>>
>>
>> I would love to see an analysis of a 128 bit AES encryption VS a 10 exoflop
>> computer. How long to crack it?  Anyone got the math on this?
>>
>> Andreas, your absolutely right, However we can do some estimating.
>> Just keep in mind... garbage in, garbage out.. but  this is a pretty good
>> guess.
>>
>> So the fastest super computers use general cpus and Nvidia k20s. This is
>> important to note because they scale in a linear fashion based on available
>> space.   Now we know that Oak ridge national labs has about an acre of
>> space, 43,560 Sq. Feet,  for its super computer, the Cray XK7 Named Titan.
>> Which runs at 17.59 Pentaflops.  (yes PENTAFLOPS)
>> http://www.top500.org/lists/2012/11/
>>
>> According to a Cray press release Titan can scale up to 50 Pentaflops.
>>
>> Now the new facility in Utah will have over 200,000 sq. feet dedicated to
>> its super computer.
>>
>> (
>>
>> http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/03/16/nsas-new-data-center-and-ultra-fast-supercomputer-aim-to-crack-worlds-strongest-crypto/
>> )
>>
>>
>> So If we assume, the a linear relationship between Square footage and
>> computing power then we can calculate that Utah will have 4.59  time more
>> space then Oak Ridge, so they will have room for at least 80.73
>> pentaflops.
>>
>> Several articles have stated that the center is designed to house an
>> Exoflop computer.  Thats a fast computer. Thats 10 followed by 18 zeros. Or
>> 1000 petaflops.
>>
>> There is more.  Lets look at our growth rate.   4.5 years ago Roadrunner
>> was the first super computer to brake the pentaflop barrier. Today we have
>> titan at 17.59 pentaflops. So if we can assume a growth rate of 380% per
>> year.  And that the center will be up graded with each new version of GPU
>> from Nvidia and CPUs from Intel, We can assume that we will hit one Exoflop
>> in about three years or 2015.
>>
>> The power production at the new facility supports these numbers.
>>
>> So what does this mean?   Any article that suggest that brute forcing
>> present day encryption is not possible should be taken with a grain of
>> salt.  While the article may be correct today, come September 2012, Utah
>> goes on line and we will be stepping into a world that will lead to exaflop
>> computers and may challenges to our present day encryptions.
>>
>> AES is safe for a longtime, but other encryptions should be of concern in
>> the coming years.    Don't forget about tracking and fingerprinting
>> possibilities with these massive systems.
>>
>> I would love to see an analysis of a 128 bit AES encryption VS a 10 exoflop
>> computer. How long to crack it?  Anyone got the math on this?
>>
>> The good news, no one is going to care about your stuff... unless your
>> making waves.   Then the only safe encryption is a non mathematical method,
>> such as a  library code run on a system that does not go on the net.
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 8:00 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, Apr 04, 2013 at 01:55:40PM -0400, Gregory Disney wrote:
>>>> Just saying TOR was created by the Naval Research Laboratory a part of
>>>
>>> The name's Tor, not TOR.
>>>
>>>> DARPA. Since it's inception they could index, spider and track the dark
>>>> net.
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