I just located my copy of NASA practice no PD-ED-1201, which covers
electronic part derating. Table I in that doc calls out derating caps
by 60%. It does not distinguish between electrolytics, ceramics, or
other types of cap. You may be able to locate that doc by Googling
(TM) for it.
Therefore, my 3X derating is conservative. FWIW, 3X is not my
invention, but rather a derating I leared somewhere along the line.
In any event, I'd rather stick with a conservative derating than have
to fix burned boards!